[vi] 区域金融 (RF) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会议：净息差上升，信贷改善

[vi]

[vi] 核心要点

• [vi] Regions Financial报告2026年第三季度净利润为6.11亿美元，即每股0.71美元。调整后收益为6.22亿美元，即每股0.73美元。
• [vi] 调整后税前拨备前利润达8.70亿美元，调整后有形普通股回报率为22%。
• [vi] 净利息收入环比增长2%，净息差扩大2个基点至3.68%。计息存款成本仅上升1个基点至1.70%。
• [vi] 信用指标有所改善。年化净冲销率下降13个基点至平均贷款额的0.29%，不良贷款率下降8个基点至0.59%。
• [vi] 资本市场和资金管理业务创下季度收入新高。调整后非利息收入环比增长3%，主要得益于资本市场收入增长23%。
• [vi] 管理层预计，假设美联储下一次加息发生在12月，2026年第四季度净利息收入将增长1%至2%，净息差将达到约3.70%。

[vi] 核心财务数据

[vi] 指标

[vi] 2026年第三季度业绩

[vi] 变化或背景

[vi] 净利润

[vi] 6.11亿美元

[vi] 列报业绩

[vi] 稀释后每股收益

[vi] 0.71美元

[vi] 列报业绩

[vi] 调整后净利润

[vi] 6.22亿美元

[vi] 调整后每股收益为0.73美元

[vi] 调整后税前拨备前利润

[vi] 8.70亿美元

[vi] —

[vi] 调整后有形普通股回报率

[vi] 22%

[vi] —

[vi] 净利息收入

[vi] —

[vi] 环比增长2%

[vi] 净息差

[vi] 3.68%

[vi] 环比上升2个基点

[vi] 计息存款成本

[vi] 1.70%

[vi] 环比上升1个基点

[vi] 调整后非利息收入

[vi] —

[vi] 环比增长3%

[vi] 资本市场收入

[vi] —

[vi] 环比增长23%

[vi] 调整后非利息支出

[vi] —

[vi] 环比保持相对稳定

[vi] 年化净冲销率

[vi] 0.29%

[vi] 下降13个基点

[vi] 商业服务关注类资产比例

[vi] 4.71%

[vi] 下降30个基点

[vi] 不良贷款率

[vi] 0.59%

[vi] 下降8个基点

[vi] 信用损失准备率

[vi] 1.61%

[vi] 下降2个基点

[vi] 估算CET1比率

[vi] 10.8%

[vi] 计入AOCI及拟议的《巴塞尔协议III》最终方案变更后约为10%

[vi] 股票回购

[vi] 9500万美元

[vi] 本季度内完成

[vi] 普通股股息

[vi] 2.55亿美元

[vi] 本季度内支付

[vi] 业务与运营表现

[vi] 平均贷款和期末贷款较第二季度温和增长，增速较2026年上半年的强劲势头有所放缓。商业贷款推动了这一增长，包括政府及公共部门贷款以及批发和金融服务领域的业务活动。净增长仍集中在投资级商业借款人中。

[vi] 消费贷款略有下降。信用卡和房屋抵押贷款的增长被高利率和低迷的房地产活动背景下住宅抵押贷款以及Regions房屋改善融资余额的疲软所抵消。

[vi] 平均存款和期末存款也略有下降。管理层将这一减少主要归因于几家大型商业客户将资金转移至机构投资产品，以及公共资金的季节性流出。Regions通过高流动性的表外投资解决方案管理着约160亿美元的商业客户资金余额。

[vi] 无息存款结构保持在30%出头的低段水平。商业无息存款余额有所增加，而今年迄今的小微企业开户量达到了除疫情期间外的近十年最高水平，比上年同期高出约100个基点。

[vi] 固定利率资产重定价仍是收益的主要驱动力。第三季度新发放固定利率资产的收益率比到期资产收益率高出约100个基点。管理层预计这一优势将在第四季度扩大至100–125个基点，随后随时间趋于平缓。

[vi] 手续费业务保持强劲。资本市场得益于并购顾问、证券承销与分销、商业互换以及银团贷款业务。财富管理收入从第二季度的历史高点回落，但仍高于上年同期；管理层预计该业务全年业绩将创历史新高。

[vi] Regions计划于近期启动其基于云的存款平台的有限试点，随后在2027年第一季度开展更大规模的试点。客户迁移预计将于2027年分阶段进行，目标是在2027年第二季度末或第三季度初完成。

[vi] 管理层业绩指引

[vi] 指标

[vi] 管理层指引

[vi] 2026年平均贷款增长

[vi] 较2025年实现低单位数增长

[vi] 2026年平均存款增长

[vi] 较2025年实现低单位数增长

[vi] 2026年第四季度净利息收入

[vi] 假设美联储12月加息，增长1%–2%

[vi] 2026年第四季度净息差

[vi] 约3.70%

[vi] 第四季度资本市场收入

[vi] 9000万至1.05亿美元

[vi] 2026年调整后非利息收入增长

[vi] 3%–5%，趋向于区间下限

[vi] 2026年调整后非利息支出增长

[vi] 1.5%–3.5%

[vi] 2026年经营杠杆

[vi] 按调整后基准为正

[vi] 2026年净冲销率

[vi] 0.40%–0.50%，趋向于区间下限

[vi] 加息周期内的存款贝塔系数

[vi] 30%的中高段

[vi] 管理层表示，结构性重定价、有纪律的存款定价、资产负债表扩张以及中长期利率上升应对净利息收入形成支撑。公司还预计，在无息存款持续增长且存款贝塔系数保持受控的前提下，固定资产重定价和资产负债表扩张将持续带来正面效益直至2027年。

[vi] 风险与关注领域

[vi] 利率走高制约了投资性房地产领域的活动，成本增加降低了部分交易的经济效益。管理层还指出多家庭住宅贷款表现疲软（尤以德克萨斯州为甚），并将继续监控办公楼和交通运输贷款组合。

[vi] 如果利率维持高位，未来几个季度抵押贷款和其他消费贷款的增长可能会继续受限。高利率还会影响证券估值、累积其他综合收益以及有形普通股权益，不过管理层强调了其对冲活动和内生资本生成能力。

[vi] 资本市场收入对交易时点和市场状况依然敏感。管理层表示，潜在的房地产交易如果完成，可能会推动第四季度收入趋向指引区间的上限。

[vi] 技术支出预计在未来几年内仍将保持高位。Regions正投资于其存款平台、未来的总账平台以及网络安全能力（包括针对先进人工智能威胁的防御手段）。管理层表示，随着收入增长，技术支出占收入的比例预计将有所下降。

[vi] 分析师问答要点

• [vi] 存款资金：管理层表示，无息存款增长对于保持Regions的资金成本和息差优势至关重要。该银行目前并未将提高利率作为存款增长的主要策略，但如果有需要，可能会寻求拉回挂在表外客户产品中的约160亿美元资金中的一部分。
• [vi] 资本分配：Regions表示其资本优先事项保持不变。据公司估计，其每季度可产生约50个基点的资本，为内生增长、派息和选择性股票回购提供空间。
• [vi] 贷款需求：商业贷款发放量同比增长约60%，即约40亿美元，活动在季度末进一步走强。管理层表示商业情绪积极，尽管房地产需求有所放缓。
• [vi] 核心存款增长：Regions正拓展个人与小微企业支票账户关系，并报告大众富裕客户量同比增长约8%。其中约85%的客户来自其现有客户群。
• [vi] 信用展望：管理层预计，基于当前状况，拨备率将保持总体稳定。对几笔已全额计提拨备的信贷进行任何冲销，可能都会伴随相应的拨备减少。
• [vi] 并购：Regions目前对收购存款机构不感兴趣，并优先考虑完成其存款平台的转换。如果未来立场发生改变，管理层表示可能会重点增加现有市场的密度并收购补充性存款基础。

[vi] 业绩电话会议完整文字记录

• [vi] * *

[vi] 完整财报电话会议逐字稿

[vi] 管理层陈述

[vi] Operator

[vi] Good morning, and welcome to Regions Financial Corporation's quarterly earnings call. My name is Chris, and I will be your operator for today's call. \[Operator Instructions\]

[vi] I will now turn the call over to Chris Best to begin.

[vi] Unknown Executive

[vi] Thank you, Chris. Welcome to Regions Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. John and Anil will provide high-level commentary regarding our results. We ask that you review the cautionary statements included in our earnings documents, which are available in the Investor Relations section of our website. These materials contain information regarding the use of non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the GAAP results as well as forward-looking statements about Regions performance. These statements speak only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update them.

[vi] I will now turn the call over to John.

[vi] John Turner

[vi] Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call today. Earlier this morning, we reported earnings of $611 million, resulting in earnings per share of $0.71. On an adjusted basis, earnings were $622 million or $0.73 per share. We delivered adjusted pretax pre-provision income of $870 million and an adjusted return on tangible common equity of 22%.

[vi] As we move through the second half of the year, what stands out most to me is the consistency of our performance. While continuing to generate strong financial results, we remain focused on strengthening the franchise through investments in talent, technology, products in key markets. Those investments continue to enhance our ability to serve customers and compete effectively.

[vi] Across our businesses, we continue to see healthy customer engagement. On the consumer side, we continue to grow households and checking accounts while deepening primary relationships. Commercial clients continue to invest in their businesses, technology and long-term growth initiatives. While the operating environment continues to evolve, activity levels across the franchise remain constructive.

[vi] Credit quality continued to be a source of strength during the quarter. Annualized net charge-offs were 29 basis points of average loans, while business services criticized and total nonperforming loans continued to decline. Despite these positive trends, we remain focused on actively managing risk across the portfolio.

[vi] While remains the foundation of our strategy, we're also generating strong momentum across our fee-based businesses. Capital Markets and Treasury Management each delivered record revenue during the quarter, reflecting strong client engagement and continued execution across both businesses.

[vi] Wealth Management revenue moderated from record second quarter levels but remained strong relative to the prior year. Collectively, capital markets, treasury management and wealth management, continue to perform at historically strong levels, demonstrating the strength of our diversified fee-based business model and the value we provide to our clients.

[vi] We continue to make meaningful progress on our cloud-based deposit platform implementation and broader modernization efforts. As we've discussed previously, we're taking a deliberate phased approach that we believe appropriately balances execution discipline with the scale and complexity of the initiative. This is one of the most significant technology investments in our company's history, and we remain confident in both our approach and the long-term benefits this investment will deliver.

[vi] Our commitment to long-term investment extends beyond talent and technology to the communities we serve. This year marks 30 years as the bank of the Southeastern Conference, a milestone we're proud to celebrate. We believe the longevity of that relationship reflects the strength of our brand, the depth of our community relationships and our long-standing commitment to customers and businesses we serve. As we look ahead, we remain confident in our position. We have a strong franchise, healthy customer relationships and a leadership team focused on execution. We believe the investments we've made and the momentum we're seeing across the business position Regions well for a strong finish to 2026 and sustained success in the years ahead.

[vi] Now, Anil will provide some highlights regarding the quarter.

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] Thank you, John. Let's start with the balance sheet. Both average and ending loans increased modestly versus the second quarter. As expected and consistent with market trends, growth moderated from the stronger pace experienced during the first half of the year. Growth was again driven by broad-based commercial lending activity, including continued strength across several C&I categories, including government and public sector and wholesale and financial services.

[vi] While net loan growth remained concentrated among investment-grade commercial clients, production trends continue to be healthy across our emerging commercial and middle market businesses, supported by recent talent investments. Consumer loan balances declined modestly during the quarter. Growth in credit card and home equity was offset by continued softness in residential mortgage and Regions home improvement finance, reflecting the higher rate environment and muted housing market activity.

[vi] As we look ahead, current levels of client engagement, production activity and pipeline strength continue to support our confidence in the growth outlook. We continue to expect full year average loan growth to be up low single digits versus 2025.

[vi] Turning to deposits. Both average and ending balances decreased modestly, primarily reflecting activity from a few of our largest commercial customers utilizing our institutional investment services for specific investment strategies combined with expected seasonal outflows in public funds deposits. As a reminder, the company continues to manage substantial excess client balances for our commercial clients totaling approximately $16 billion through highly liquid off-balance sheet investment solutions.

[vi] Underlying commercial trends remain healthy with continued growth in new accounts, and increases in both average and ending commercial noninterest-bearing balances during the quarter. Retail deposits performed as expected, with growth in new accounts, partially offset by late-summer seasonal spending. Consumer money market balances continued to grow while year-to-date small business account openings reached their highest level in the past decade, excluding the pandemic period and are approximately 100 basis points higher than the prior year period.

[vi] We remain disciplined in managing deposit costs in an elevated rate environment while leveraging the strength of our deposit franchise to drive customer acquisition and retention. Our noninterest-bearing deposit mix remained in the low 30% range, consistent with our target and reflective of the operational nature of our deposit base. We continue to expect 2026 average deposits to be up low single digits versus the prior year.

[vi] Let's shift to net interest income. Net interest income increased 2% linked quarter, building on recent momentum in support of our structural repricing dynamics and balance sheet expansion. Net interest margin increased 2 basis points to 3.68%, reflecting our strong profitability and deposit funding advantage. During the third quarter, interest-bearing deposit costs were largely stable, increasing just 1 basis point to 1.70%. Disciplined deposit cost management and our operating account mix continues to provide a strong foundation for earnings in the current elevated interest rate environment. We expect the interest-bearing deposit beta will remain in the mid- to high 30% range through the rising rate cycle, supporting a mostly neutral interest rate risk position.

[vi] In the fourth quarter, however, lags in the repricing of certain retail deposit products following the September rate hike will provide a modest lift to net interest income. We are positioned well to benefit from higher middle- and long-term interest rates through fixed rate asset turnover.

[vi] In the third quarter, yields on newly originated fixed-rate assets were approximately 100 basis points higher than the yield on maturities. We expect this repricing advantage to expand to between 100 and 125 basis points in the fourth quarter, providing a tailwind that persists for multiple years, assuming current rate levels while moderating through time.

[vi] As previously mentioned, loan growth moderated during the quarter. However, we did see momentum pick up late, further supporting average balance and net interest income growth into the fourth quarter. The mix of loan growth continues to migrate towards high-quality credits. And while this creates a headwind for asset spreads, net interest income and margin, the economic trade-off is evident in improving credit results and deepening customer relationships.

[vi] Similarly, while the funding mix in the third quarter was negatively impacted by the migration of certain deposits to off-balance sheet products, the resulting shift supports fee revenue. Looking forward, we expect a more balanced loan and deposit growth profile to sustain profitability.

[vi] Assuming the next Fed rate hike occurs in December, we expect fourth quarter net interest income to increase between 1% and 2%, supported by persistent tailwinds from high rates, structural repricing, disciplined deposit cost management, balance sheet growth and the seasonal HR asset dividend. The fourth quarter net interest margin is expected to be approximately 3.70%.

[vi] Now let's turn to fee revenue performance for the quarter. Adjusted noninterest income increased 3% on a linked-quarter basis driven primarily by record capital markets and treasury management revenue as well as growth in commercial credit fees, bank-owned life insurance income and other noninterest income, partially offset by a $28 million decline in the market value on employee benefit assets.

[vi] Capital markets income increased 23% compared to the prior quarter, driven by stronger M&A advisory activity, securities underwriting and placement fees, commercial swap income and syndications revenue. Looking ahead, activity levels remain constructive, and we continue to expect fourth quarter revenue to be within our previously communicated range of $90 million to $105 million. The timing of client activity and market conditions will influence where we land within that range.

[vi] For full year 2026, we continue to expect adjusted noninterest income to grow between 3% and 5% versus 2025, with results continuing to track toward the lower end of that range.

[vi] Let's move on to noninterest expense. Adjusted noninterest expense was relatively stable compared to the prior quarter. Lower salaries and benefits expense attributable primarily to lower market value adjustments for supplemental employee benefit liabilities along with a decline in other expense helped offset higher equipment software expense and increased professional legal and regulatory costs during the quarter.

[vi] As expected, continued investments in technology and infrastructure were offset by disciplined management across the broader expense base. Overall expense trends remain consistent with our expectations for the year.

[vi] For full year 2026, we continue to expect adjusted noninterest expense to be up between 1.5% and 3.5%, and we expect to deliver full year adjusted positive operating leverage.

[vi] Regarding asset quality, we were encouraged by strong credit performance during the quarter, reflecting the strength and resiliency of our customer base and our continued disciplined approach to risk management. As John highlighted, annualized net charge-offs as a percentage of average loans declined 13 basis points to 29 basis points.

[vi] Business services criticized and nonperforming loans, both improved during the quarter. The business services criticized ratio declined 30 basis points to 4.71%, while the nonperforming loan ratio declined 8 basis points to 59 basis points. The allowance for credit losses ratio declined 2 basis points to 1.61%. Continued progress within previously identified portfolios of interest were largely offset by reserves maintained for macroeconomic uncertainty and other qualitative factors, resulting in a relatively stable reserve balance during the quarter.

[vi] We continue to expect full year 2026 net charge-offs to be between 40 and 50 basis points. And based on performance to date, now expected to trend toward the lower end of that range.

[vi] Let's turn to capital and liquidity. We ended the quarter with an estimated common equity Tier 1 ratio of 10.8%, while executing $95 million in share repurchases and paying $255 million in common dividends during the quarter. Liquidity remains robust with total sources well above required levels. Modest declines during the quarter reflect the impact of higher interest rates on collateral valuations as well as the changes in loans and deposits discussed previously.

[vi] Regions remains well positioned to support future loan growth while maintaining its disciplined approach to balance sheet management. Including the impact of AOCI and reflecting the proposed Basel III end game risk-weighted asset changes, our estimated CET1 ratio was approximately 10%. This level remains well above our target range of 9.25% to 9.75% and provides continued flexibility to support strategic growth and return capital to shareholders. Regions maintained a strong earnings profile that consistently generates capital, and we will continue to execute strategies to further reduce our sensitivity to interest rates.

[vi] Overall, we're pleased with our third quarter performance, which reflects the strength of our franchise, the resiliency of our customer base and the disciplined execution of our long-term strategy. We remain well positioned to support our customers, invest in growth opportunities and deliver sustainable value for shareholders.

[vi] With that, we'll open the line for your questions.

[vi] Operator

[vi] \[Operator Instructions\] Our first question comes from the line of Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.

[vi] 分析师问答

[vi] Ryan Nash

[vi] So you guys have been able to buck the trend this quarter. Deposit costs were up just 1 basis point. Maybe just talk about expectations embedded in the 4Q NII guiding ahead. Anil, I know you mentioned they could lag a bit. But looking forward, just how do you think about balancing growing deposit to support the balance sheet and also continuing to maintain a peer leading margin. Maybe just a little bit of color on how you think about incremental funding from here. And I have a follow-up.

[vi] John Turner

[vi] Yes. Thank you. So the most important thing to protect the margin is to make sure we continue to grow noninterest-bearing deposits. And so that has been a key focus of ours. That's why we're making the investments we are across our retail network, across the small business platform. We've seen great results so far this year. Small business operating accounts are up over 100 basis points this year. And so continuing to do that. It is day-to-day siding, but that is the key to success. The overall composition of our balance sheet is also what helps us. Having a relatively lower loan-to-deposit ratio is helpful. Having a lower debt footprint is helpful. It allows us to continue to invest in profitable loan growth, while being able to maintain deposit costs flexibility and having the funding needed to fund that growth through time. So continuing to do that, being mindful of putting on good profitable loan growth and continuing to execute growing noninterest-bearing deposits is the key to maintaining that flexibility and that deposit advantage and the NIM advantage going forward.

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] Ryan, I'd just add, we're obviously not using rate as part of our deposit -- strategy to grow deposits. But we can, if we need to, we have about $16 billion in off-balance sheet investment related deposits that customers are holding either in a suite product basically or with our institutional trust department. So we know that money is -- we can easily attract that back to the bank with higher rates. Separately, on the consumer side, back in 2022, 2023, when rates were rising, and we saw -- because of a very active program that we initiated to grow deposits, we grew CDs by about $7 billion, money market deposits by $4 billion, and we're able to do that at a deposit beta of about 44%. So when rates went up almost 500 basis points over that period of time. So -- we know we can grow deposits if we need to by using rate, and we're actively following our customer activity, but it's not part of our strategy obviously currently.

[vi] Ryan Nash

[vi] Got it. And Anil, maybe for a follow-up, just given the move in rates, your capital levels fell below the 9.25% to 9.75% without factoring in Basel III. And I think TC may have dipped a little below 7%. So -- maybe just talk about how you're planning on managing capital over the next few quarters given decent loan growth. Are you factoring Basel III now into expectations? And what time frame would you expect to be back in that sort of targeted range that you guys have been focused on for a period of time here?

[vi] John Turner

[vi] Yes. So importantly, under the current capital framework, our capital level is 10.8%. So very robust capital levels. To your point, if we wanted to pro forma for Basel III end game, which we expect to see this year, that would take us to 10%, which is well above our 9.25% to 9.75% range. Also, we generated 50 basis points of capital every quarter. This quarter is a great example. It just really shows the organic capital generation that we have quarter-to-quarter. We'll pay 20 basis points out in the dividend, grow the balance sheet. And so we organically create capital as well. And also when you think about the impact from AOCI, given last quarter's rate moves, through time, we'll see that AOCI burn down, assuming flat rates. And so that's capital that accretes back to our balance sheet through time as well. And so we think we're well positioned given the organic capital we generate, given our overall capital position to continue to make all the investments we want to make and when appropriate, buy back shares through time as well.

[vi] Operator

[vi] Our next question comes from the line of Scott Siefers with TD Cowen.

[vi] Unknown Analyst

[vi] I think you noted in your prepared remarks that loan demand picked up toward the end of the quarter, I believe, hopefully, I'm not putting words in mouth. We've heard that from a couple of regionals. So I guess questions and follow-ups. What do you think is driving that? And then on the flip side, is there a point where you think higher rates might start to impact demand a little more materially, I guess, on the negative side.

[vi] John Turner

[vi] This is John. We have seen nice activity toward the end of the quarter, as you pointed out. Production was up year-over-year about $4 billion. We saw a 60% increase in production. And in addition to that, obviously, line utilization is up year-over-year, though down a little for the quarter. But customers are actively managing their balance sheets, investing in their business and still have a positive point of view or positive view of the economy. And so -- and we'd expect that activity to continue.

[vi] One place where we are seeing the impact of interest rates is in the investor real estate portfolio. We see -- while we're seeing growth in multifamily as a result of previous commitments that are funding, the level of new activity is slowing because of rising cost and difficulty to make the economics of those transactions work. So that's something we'll look for in future quarters, have an impact on loan growth. But in general, business sentiment is still good.

[vi] Operator

[vi] Our next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS.

[vi] L. Erika Penala

[vi] I noticed that slide that you usually have in terms of where your NIM is on -- against the Fed fund background is in the third quarter side. So as we think about the rate curve and as you think about your confidence in NIB growth optimization and beta. I'm wondering how we should think about the path of the net interest margin from 3.70% exit as we contemplate two to three rate hikes over the next 12 months?

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] Yes. And we removed that slide given that slide was really focused for the full year. And given we gave you the fourth quarter guide, we just didn't feel that slide was as necessary. But I'll address your question. We'll go too far to give '27 guidance. But we indicated we expect to exit the fourth quarter around the 3.70% margin. So when we look forward into 2027. Some of the structural tailwinds that we have will continue into '27. So fixed asset repricing will continue. We quoted that to be 100 to 125 basis points in the fourth quarter. That will continue into the future at a lower rate as we go through time. It's still a benefit. And then we expect the balance sheet to continue to grow into '27. And so as long as we continue to generate good noninterest-bearing deposits, maintain our deposit beta in the mid- to high 30s as rate increases, that will continue to support expansion in both net interest income and the margin in the '27.

[vi] L. Erika Penala

[vi] Very clear. And just to follow up on Ryan's question on capital. And congratulations, by the way, on being your new Treasurer. He's great. The -- as we think about rates being higher for longer on the belly of the curve, obviously, you bought back $95 million this quarter. How should we think about your priorities in terms of buyback versus protecting capital. And you mentioned TCE. I'm wondering Moody's has come out with tougher language for your larger bank peers, Bank of America -- there's a release in Bank of America yesterday. How much are they starting to assert themselves if more in terms of the conversation about capital?

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] Yes. Our conversations about capital with the rating agencies have been positive. We've been very clear with how we think about regulatory capital TCE. So our capital priorities are unchanged. We have strong capital generation. We're mindful of the interest rate environment.

[vi] It's just good to remind ourselves. Over the past 10 years, we've seen 11 quarters when the 10-year treasury has increased or decreased more than 50 basis points. And so we saw a big move this quarter, but we need to remind ourselves that large moves can happen. And so that's 1 of the reasons why we're so active in making sure that our hedging program factors that in. So you see on the slide in our appendix the fair value hedges that we put on this quarter to protect capital in a potential rising rate environment. So we'll continue to execute strategies like that to protect capital. But because of that and the capital generation that we have, we still think our capital priorities are unchanged.

[vi] With respect to the TCE ratio, I've commented on this before, but the inclusion of cash flow hedges in that calculation, I think, is meaningful for us. That's the core of our franchise values our deposit base. And so being able to maintain that duration and capitalize on that through time through revenue is important for us. And so we will make sure that we make good risk management decisions around that. But the TCE ratio really only reflecting one side of that trade, if you will, we think, is a big disadvantage of that ratio. And so we think the changes to regulatory capital those make sense, and we'll monitor TCE, but the inclusion of cash flow hedges is one that I think I wouldn't want to impact how we risk-manage our balance sheet.

[vi] Operator

[vi] Our next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

[vi] Ebrahim Poonawala

[vi] Just talk to us about from a deposit growth standpoint, I think, John, you shared some stats in your remarks, I believe earlier. But as we think about deposit growth and bringing in new customers, what seems to -- doing more to sort of deepen the relationship. And similarly, on the consumer side, because all the year is competitive dynamics, a lot of promotions from non -- sort of nonmarket banks in the Southeast. So if you don't mind sharing some color around how should we think about lower cost core deposit growth from here?

[vi] John Turner

[vi] Yes. I mean it is our focus, and we dedicated our consumer banking teams to focus on acquiring the new customer checking households and new small business checking households. Our commercial bankers are focused on winning new logos, new middle market business. And that really is our objective. We're using feet on the street to do that, by and large. And we think we're in really great markets. We continue to recruit a lot of wonderful bankers. We are enabling them with a lot of really good technology, provides insights about customers and prospects, and we're focused on execution.

[vi] And as a result of that, we're growing consumer checking accounts. We're growing small business checking accounts, and that's really the core of the business, right? So as we deepen those relationships through providing customers with debit cards, with credit cards, with equity lines of credit and nor mortgages, investment products. On the other side, small businesses with treasury management payment capabilities and sometimes credit, those are relationship deepening activities. We think we've talked about growth in treasury management. Penetration rates up over 7%. Again, a focus on helping customers manage the cash flow in their business, manage the cash in their business and also take advantage of emerging new payments products that really help their businesses and help speed up cash flow as assets convert.

[vi] So I think our team is doing a really nice job, and we're seeing that in household growth and feel good about what that will mean over time as those customers activate their accounts, use their cards and do other things that result in more deposit balances coming to the bank.

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] And EB, I'll just add to that. We really understand the nature of our deposit base and our deposit customers. We're very proud of the 30-ish percent of our deposit base that's not interest-bearing. But even that interest-bearing portion, we understand the rate-seeking behavior of that population. We're able to test into that population and grow deposits in a very targeted fashion. This is where being some of the best growth markets in the country works to our advantage because we can do very targeted opportunities and offers to grow deposits in that bucket that we have very well defined and add to our deposit base while still protecting the noninterest-bearing deposit base, as John just alluded to.

[vi] John Turner

[vi] The other thing I'd just make a point, we've grown our mass affluent customer base by about 8% year-over-year, and 85% of those customers come from our own customer base. So we're acquiring younger customers. We believe, based upon information provided by industry sources that about 3x the rate that many of our peers are, and we're converting those customers over time to be more mass affluent in nature. And as a result, their balances and their relationships grow. So a really important part of our strategy and I think producing really good results.

[vi] Ebrahim Poonawala

[vi] That's an interesting stat on the younger customer. So thanks for sharing all that color. One quick question on -- you didn't mention AI, mostly in terms of -- you've heard some of your peers talk about redirecting tech investment towards cyber risk because of AI. Just talk to us how big of a lift is that? And just how all of that is informing your concern around cyber threats, I mean not just to regions, but obviously the entire system?

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] Yes, absolutely. So investing in cyber defense has always been something very critical for us is even more heightened in today's environment. We are actively participating across many different industry consortiums to ensure that our cyber defense protocols are advancing as this technology evolves. And to your point, it does involve meaningful expense, both new expense and redirection of existing associates, and that's embedded in our cost base. We do expect that to continue through time. It's the new reality that we live in today. So we're definitely front and center with that.

[vi] Our CSO is actively involved with her counterparts across the industry, and we have a great team working to make sure that our customers can continue to have the trust in us that we know is incredibly valuable to them. So that is an important investment that we will constantly make to make sure that trust is maintained.

[vi] And we're able to monitor in terms of how AI is being used across different platforms, so we can track activity and how it may impact our deposit base. We're seeing very low traffic through that channel. We'll continue to monitor that. We've talked before about why we don't believe that's a meaningful threat to our deposit base but we can monitor that as well. But to your point, it's an important investment, broadly speaking, that we need to make as a company and one that we'll absolutely continue to do.

[vi] Operator

[vi] Our next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Autonomous Research.

[vi] Kenneth Usdin

[vi] One question on betas. You mentioned that you still expect that the cumulative betas in this up cycle to be in the mid- to upper 30s. Last cycle, they were higher than that. And then just wondering just what the difference is and if it's what do you tell us about either the mix of deposits or the granularity of the deposit base that gives you that continued confidence that you can kind of keep it in that much better than peer range?

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] Yes. One point of differentiation is the magnitude of the change before I think drove a higher beta. But in terms of what gives us confidence is really it's that granularity of understanding the nature of our deposit base. So not just thinking about it "in aggregate," but understanding. We have a portion of our customer base that's 100% beta, and we understand and can back test to see how that changes through time. And so by actively monitoring betas across different cohorts, if you will, of our deposit base, and tracking that and seeing the consistency of performance. That's what really gives us confidence in our guide looking forward.

[vi] John Turner

[vi] I think too, Ken, just embedded in the numbers where some of the -- maybe some of the data I shared about our growing deposits, intentionally growing deposits, interest-bearing deposits in 2022 and 2023. You might remember that was a period of time when banks were actively seeking deposit growth. There's a lot of pressure on deposits. And so at that time, I mentioned we grew CDs by $7 billion and money market deposits by $4 billion. As a result, the deposit beta was higher at 44%, as I recall.

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] Yes. To your remixing point, we have, as you'd expect, as rates have moved higher, our kind of starting point today does have some of that remixing already baked into it.

[vi] Kenneth Usdin

[vi] Okay. Got it. And just on the loan book, I think we're just -- from here, is the loan book kind of just all moving to the same direction? Like you've kind of gotten past all those runoff book, I believe, for the most part. And so is it kind of is like business as usual from here and just really depending on the environment and what you're facing in terms of the consumer and commercial sides of the business?

[vi] John Turner

[vi] Yes. And I think if you look at loan growth over the quarter, consumer loan growth has been a little bit of a headwind. And since a good bit of our consumer loan growth, consumer loan balances are in the mortgage portfolio, shouldn't expect to see a lot of growth in consumer loans, if any growth over the next quarter or 2, 3, depending upon where rates are.

[vi] On the other side, our wholesale business grew significantly. If you look at H8 data, we grew a little faster -- the H8 data in the corporate banking business. So we feel good about the path of loan growth from here. And to your point, it should be business as usual, absent the impact on the consumer business from rates.

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] And I'll just point, in the quarter, we saw really nice growth in IRE as well, up about 2.4%. As you look towards where rates may go in the future, that will be kind of a governor as to how much growth we see there in terms of what may get to the capital markets if rates level out a little bit. But to John's point, we're really proud of the growth that we're seeing. And when you break it down portfolio by portfolio, we think the comparison to H8 data is kind of reaffirming our belief that we're growing as our markets grow.

[vi] Operator

[vi] Our next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

[vi] John Pancari

[vi] On the security side, I know you had mentioned that you'll continue to review actions to manage your interest rate sensitivity. I know you further repositioned the securities book this quarter, $845 million or so. Can you just talk to us about potential further actions there to adjust your rate conductivity via the securities book and other actions that you've taken as part of that expectation to manage rates?

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] Yes. So we're going to maintain the discipline that you've seen from us in terms of looking at the return profile of those transactions. And so that $850 million that we executed this quarter, that $15 million, we had about a $2 million -- sorry, a 2-year payback on that. And so we've been consistent. We're thinking about that from a payback of less than 3 years and we'll do that through time.

[vi] As rates move around, we're constantly evaluating any opportunities and as securities pull closer to maturity, the lack of liquidity benefit also provides opportunity there. I wouldn't expect to see too much given what we're seeing right now. But given our history, you should expect us to continue to manage that.

[vi] Regarding the overall securities portfolio, we feel good about the size and composition of where it sits right now. We'll continue to manage the risk from interest rates, as I mentioned before, through continuing to use fair value swaps on securities to make sure that we're monitoring capital risk. And then we feel good about our mix of HTM right now at about 16%. We'll monitor that through time. But all in all, I feel like we're well positioned in this rate environment.

[vi] John Pancari

[vi] Okay. Great. And then separately on the credit side, credit trends were particularly solid and improved a bit this quarter. Just given the moving rates and the inflationary concerns and macro volatility out there? Any signs of erosion that you're seeing early signs were flagging? And is it -- I know your ACL ratio bumped down a little bit this quarter. Is it fair to assume that likely stable from here, just given the backdrop? Or do you think you're probably going to see that compress incrementally?

[vi] John Turner

[vi] Yes. No, we think stable from here, John, based on what we know. We think the net charge-off range based on the composition of our portfolio is somewhere between 40 and 50 basis points. We're still working on a few large credits that we had identified that problem in those portfolios of interest, how and when they get resolved will impact results and could increase charge-offs modestly in a given quarter. But for the year, we would expect charge-offs within the 40 to 50 basis point range and at the -- likely at the low end of that range. And we think we see stability from here forward. Little weakness in the multifamily business, primarily in Texas, as just as a geography, some softness in absorption rates. But otherwise, and we continue to watch office and transportation given the things that are still impacting those portfolios, but they have improved. And obviously, as you see that in our results, and we would expect, as I said, stability from here.

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] Yes. And I would just point you maybe to three things as you think about the allowance from here. And as John mentioned, there's a couple of credits that we're still monitoring they're fully reserved for. So if they charge off over time, you should expect us to reduce the allowance by a like amount. Continue to look at the economic environment. Clearly, that's something that could be variable. And so we'll keep our eye on that. And then also just as importantly as the origination profile, we've talked a lot about investment-grade credits since I just mathematically, if that should continue into the future, we don't need to hold as much reserves against those given the better credit risk. So that could play out just in terms of the math as the ratio moves from here.

[vi] Operator

[vi] Our next question comes from the line of David Chiaverini with Jefferies.

[vi] David Chiaverini

[vi] I wanted to ask about capital markets and the outlook. You're guiding $90 million to $105 million. I was curious as to your expectation in terms of with the higher rate backdrop the extent to which this could impact your CRE customers. Are you seeing any impact at all thus far?

[vi] John Turner

[vi] Well, it has had an impact on the business over the last, call it, 12 to 18 months. So we did have a good quarter in the third quarter across all components of our capital markets business, including the real estate business, we have a couple of transactions that actually could go to the secondary market and on the verge depending on what happens with rates over the next few weeks. And -- so we're guiding to 90 to 105. And we think that's a solid range if those transactions work, maybe it's on the upper end of that range. But today, we would say somewhere between 90 and 105 is where we are in the quarter.

[vi] David Chiaverini

[vi] Got it. And then on the expense side and the cloud-based deposit platform. Remind us, is there any change in timing in terms of when you expect that to be completed? And then can you refresh us on your latest thoughts on the M&A front?

[vi] John Turner

[vi] Sure. So on the deposit system platform, we'll we get a pilot of associates, friends and family, so to speak, in the next week or two. And assuming that goes well, we'll start a larger pilot in the first quarter of 2027, and our intention is to convert customers over time in 2027, completing sometime towards the end of the second quarter into the third quarter of 2027. And all that is on track at the moment.

[vi] In terms of M&A, our position is unchanged. We said, "We're not interested in depository M&A." We have a really good plan. We continue to execute our plan. We can deliver top quartile, top decile results based on return on tangible common equity and a primary metric. And we think that, that's still very achievable. We have this project going on. It is consuming everyone's attention internally likely the largest technology project we've done, we're effectively converting ourselves. So we need to get through that project before we think about M&A. And I would say that when we get through it, we'll have a lot of the conversation about our interest. But today, because I think we'll have some capabilities that will position us well if we wanted to participate. But today, we are not a candidate participate in depository M&A.

[vi] Operator

[vi] Our next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

[vi] Matthew O'Connor

[vi] I was just hoping you could talk about the wealth fees, sorry, if I missed it earlier, but they were down a little bit Q2 up to 5% year-over-year. Obviously, like equities have been strong, but remind us kind of how impacted they are by equity levels versus fixed income and maybe just versus other things that might be in there like annuity sales or just some the moving pieces?

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] Yes. So I'd break the drivers into two buckets. First, to your point, is just portfolio composition. And so looking at both equities and bonds, I would say it drives around 40% to 50% of the overall performance of the business. But most importantly, production within our financial advisers is what drives the growth as well. And so this is a place where we've really been committed to investing. This business has done very well for us. You've seen us post record quarters in prior quarters. This quarter, we ticked down just a little bit, still seeing good production and expect that to return. But as you think about the drivers of revenue, I'd break it into those buckets.

[vi] John Turner

[vi] And see, I'd make the point, just we will end -- likely end the year with a record year in wealth management. So while we had a little softness in the quarter, relatively speaking, it's going to be a really good year for wealth management, and we would expect that trend to continue.

[vi] Operator

[vi] Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Kenny with Morgan Stanley.

[vi] Ryan Kenny

[vi] So just following up on the conversation around the core deposit system conversion -- have been in the works for a few years now. And just wondering if you could give an update on the timing? And do the capabilities that you're launching needs to evolve given that we now are facing the rise of AI tools and real-time payments? And which specific capabilities do you think will most be able to help you enhance your customer product set?

[vi] John Turner

[vi] Yes. So we are on schedule to deliver the platform in 2027. And as I mentioned earlier, we'll start a pilot in the next week or two. And that pilot will gravitate to a much larger set of customers after the first of the year, and we will convert customers in waves over the course of the year, likely completing that toward the end of the second quarter or sometime early in the third quarter based on what we know today. The platform will be a contemporary platform. We think this gives us a lot of capabilities that we don't have today. It's a real-time system. And we think that will be an advantage that we have and something we can bring to our customers will also allow us to bring products, pricing mechanisms to customers that we don't have today. We think we can do -- we'll be able to do that much more quickly. And so we're excited about the capabilities.

[vi] With respect to artificial intelligence, again, we think the system is one component of a transformation of our business as we think about how do we make it easier for our bankers and our customers to do business. How do we transform our client onboarding experience, sales enablement, problem resolution. The new system in combination with artificial intelligence and process improvement driven by bankers that know and understand our processes are things that we think will give us a real competitive advantage once the system is in place and we can begin to combine technology, with process improvement and quality bankers.

[vi] Ryan Kenny

[vi] And then separately on consumer deposits. So it seems like you're not seeing much of an impact from AI -- consumer checking balances. But are you seeing any impact from inflation driving loan...

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] Yes. No, it's something we monitor very clearly. I'd just remind you have a couple of metrics. So our average customer deposit account balance is right at $5,200. That's a similar number to what I've shared with you before. And the median is still right around $900. And so we have not seen a meaningful shift in that. We talked earlier this year about the benefit of taxes and how that the buffer for higher cost across the board, but really aren't seeing much movement. We track energy cost. And so year-over-year, the impact of higher gasoline prices on our customer is about $24 a month. And so our customers are very resilient, and we see that in their deposit balance.

[vi] Operator

[vi] Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Spahr with Wells Fargo.

[vi] Christopher Spahr

[vi] First is just a little clarification. So the comments on the higher tech spend in the quarter, is that tied at all to the transformation or the systems upgrade?

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] That's just investment in cybersecurity. So think about Frontier AI and investments that we're making to ensure we have a trustful platform for our customers. And some of that is just a redirectment of existing spend and then some marginal spend as well. But all that's in the numbers for the quarter.

[vi] Christopher Spahr

[vi] And then will there -- once you get -- so towards the second half of next year, will there be any kind of relief on the expense side or head count with the -- when you're finally done with the deposit conversion?

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] I think a couple of things. One, we will move on to a new general ledger platform as well. And so there will be continued investments in tech spend. I won't give you too much guidance into 2027. But look, we think technology investment is something that we will continue to do. There are ample projects that we think can enable our business investment as we compete in markets that we're in today. And so we're very focused on a couple of key projects today. But when we bring those online, there are plenty of other projects that we think technology can bring to bear to help our bankers support our customers day in and day out, and we have some great business cases that we'll be executing upon in years to come.

[vi] So I won't go too far in terms of headcount going forward. But I think what you should see is us continuing to invest in capabilities that will enable our bankers to serve our customers.

[vi] Christopher Spahr

[vi] Okay. I guess what I'm getting out to is, I believe in the past, you've talked about total tech spend being a little elevated above your, what, 10% to 11% range of revenues, if I recall, right?

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] Yes.

[vi] Christopher Spahr

[vi] And is that, will that continue beyond the second half and into '28?

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] I think it will continue for a couple of years, it will start to come down as revenues start to grow.

[vi] Operator

[vi] Our next question comes from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW.

[vi] Christopher McGratty

[vi] Maybe asking the expense -- putting the deposit conversation and the tech spend together. It feels like there's a path to continued operating leverage beyond 2026. Any pushback to that observation?

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] Generating positive operating leverage through Tom is a commitment of ours. When you have significant investments like we have right now, the timing of them, as you can imagine, when you start depreciating capital spend and bringing on SaaS related expenses is important just in terms of the math. And so the timing of all that will impact positive operating leverage. We're still committed to delivering it. But as we get closer to giving guidance for 2027, we'll clarify that. But the underlying core of our business, the revenue we generate, the expense discipline is unchanged. Where we have significant projects like this that becomes a bit of a math exercise that we can go through. But the core of our business, our core strategy is unchanged. And as we are closer to '27, we'll update you on our guidance.

[vi] John Turner

[vi] Chris, we're committed to delivering positive operating leverage.

[vi] Christopher McGratty

[vi] Great. Yes, that's right here. Okay. And then, John, the follow-up would be Heron not ready for depositories, but I guess when that date potentially comes, can you just I know it's been a while, but what was kind of the ideal wave you want situation be? Any parameters or guidepost would be great.

[vi] John Turner

[vi] I'm sorry, I missed the first part of the question.

[vi] Anil Chadha

[vi] \-- transaction.

[vi] John Turner

[vi] For transaction, M&A. Yes. Okay. Got it. I'm sorry. So I think as we think about depository M&A, if we were interested, we probably will be most focused on creating more density in markets that we're in. We're in a lot of really great markets. And I think we had an opportunity to, again, create more density, build a stronger business in some of the markets we're in where we're not as present, that would certainly be a consideration. I mean, in the end, we have a very good, obviously, low-cost deposit base, very loyal customer base. And I think any acquisition that we might consider if we were interested in depository M&A would have to be one that was complementary. It's certainly not going to be the same as, but will be complementary to the customer base that we currently have in the deposit base we have. That would be our primary focus.

[vi] Operator

[vi] This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to John Turner for closing comments.

[vi] John Turner

[vi] Okay. Well, thank you very much. Again, we're awfully proud of our quarter and the consistent performance we continue to deliver. Appreciate your interest in our company and participating today, and hope you have a great weekend. Thank you.

[vi] Operator

[vi] This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

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