OFG 2026年第三季度业绩电话会议：商业增长、信贷趋势与业绩指引

核心要点

• OFG计提了1810万美元的信用损失准备，环比第二季度增加510万美元，主要反映了贷款规模的增长以及汽车贷款逾期的季节性调整。
• 受季节性趋势影响，前期逾期率和总逾期率环比分别升至2.65%和3.91%，但两者均低于去年同期水平。
• 与2026年第二季度和2025年第三季度相比，净冲销率和不良贷款率分别下降至0.70%和0.74%。
• 商业信贷质量有所增强，商业不良贷款率从上一季度的0.90%降至0.68%。管理层还报告了强劲的商业贷款储备。
• OFG重申了对全年贷款维持低个位数增长的预期。管理层表示，项目储备提供了超越该区间的机会，不过公司并未发布正式的2027年业绩指引。
• 扣除第二季度记入的580万美元业务运营费用后，全年非利息费用预计约为3.85亿美元。扣除独立项目后，预估税率仍保持在22.5%。

关键财务数据

指标

2026年第三季度业绩或展望

变动及背景

信用损失准备

1810万美元

环比增加510万美元

前期逾期率

2.65%

因季节性因素环比上升；同比下降

总逾期率

3.91%

因季节性因素环比上升；同比下降

净冲销率

0.70%

低于2026年第二季度和2025年第三季度

不良贷款率

0.74%

低于2026年第二季度和2025年第三季度

商业不良贷款率

0.68%

较2026年第二季度的0.90%有所改善

零售客户增长

同比增长5%

得益于数字化工具和个性化客户洞察的支持

剩余股票回购授权额度

1.8亿美元

资本优先事项仍为业务增长、分红及回购

业务与经营业绩

商业银行业务是主要的增长驱动力。管理层将2026年描述为OFG波多黎各商业业务强劲的一年，理由是中端市场和小微企业贷款以及存款客户关系蕴含机遇。据悉，新增商业贷款收益率与现有资产组合收益率相近。

汽车贷款新发放量有所下降，但表现好于管理层预期。展望2027年，管理层的初步看法是，新车销量和车贷新发放量可能保持平稳或略有下降，不会在2026年的水平上加速下滑。公司未提供正式的2027年业绩指引。

汽车贷款逾期率小幅上升，与下半年的正常季节性规律一致。然而，汽车贷款净冲销率同比有所改善，追偿保持强劲，抵押品清算价值稳定。管理层预计季节性逾期压力将持续到第四季度，随后在第一季度得到改善。

住房抵押贷款表现依然强劲，逾期指标下降且追偿额超过冲销额。消费贷款和抵押贷款组合的前期逾期率和90天以上逾期率也均低于一年前。

OFG表示，其波多黎各零售客户群同比增长5%。管理层将这一进展部分归功于个性化数字化工具，这些工具能够预估未来的收入和支出，并提醒可能存在的重复账单支付。

管理层业绩指引

管理层维持对2026全年贷款低个位数增长的预期。商业项目储备可能支撑更强劲的表现，但公司并未上调其正式展望。

拨备预计将升至1800万至2000万美元区间，反映出贷款规模的增长以及受季节性影响偏高的汽车和消费信贷指标。

扣除第二季度记入的580万美元业务运营费用后，OFG的全年非利息费用仍按计划维持在约3.85亿美元。扣除独立项目后，预估全年税率保持在22.5%。

管理层讨论了12月可能发生的额外25个基点的加息。由于实施时间的缘故，OFG预计其对第四季度净利息收入的影响有限。现金以及约5亿至5.5亿美元与最优惠利率挂钩的商业贷款被确定为对利率最敏感的资产，预计将在接下来的季度产生额外影响。

资本配置将优先用于资产负债表的内生增长，其次是分红和股票回购。管理层表示，回购应保持平稳，并可能根据市场状况变得更加积极。

风险与关注领域

存款竞争和客户对利率的敏感度仍是影响息差的重要考量因素。随着客户寻求更高收益，资金从储蓄产品转向定期存款的规模超出了OFG的预期。

政府存款是资金波动的另一个来源。管理层讨论了涉及12亿美元的政府存款合作关系，其中包括今年早些时候转移至经纪交易商处的约5亿美元。部分资金余额与三个月期国债收益率挂钩，这在第四季度构成了进一步的重定价风险敞口。

管理层正在监控影响商业和零售客户的通货膨胀、居高不下的能源开支、更高的运营成本和借贷成本。更广泛的地缘政治局势发展也被列为一项风险。

尽管管理层将波多黎各的经济描述为富有韧性，但也承认高利率、通货膨胀和能源成本可能会给借款人带来压力。公司表示，尚未看到显著的经济放缓或消费信贷表现恶化的迹象。

分析师问答要点

分析师关注的焦点在于波多黎各的经济前景、汽车贷款、存款竞争、净息差压力以及资本回报。

管理层表示，经济数据继续显示失业率接近5%、工资水平较高以及私营部门投资活跃，没有出现明确的经济恶化迹象。管理层还指出近岸外包活动和企业投资是利好支撑因素。

在存款和息差方面，管理层将近期压力主要归因于资金结构。第二季度末，约4亿美元的政府存款重定价为定期存款，对第三季度产生了整季度的影响。预计额外的重定价将影响第四季度。

关于资本回报，OFG表示资产负债表增长仍是其首要任务。超额资本将通过分红和回购进行回馈，目前回购授权额度还剩1.8亿美元。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

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完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

\[Audio Gap\]

additional 25 basis points hike in December. Provisions should move into $18 million to $20 million range. This reflects increased loan volume and seasonally higher auto and consumer credit metrics. We remain on track to maintain noninterest expenses at about $385 million for the year, excluding the $5.8 million business operational charge in the second quarter.

Our estimated tax rate for the year continues to be 22.5%, not including discrete items. We will deploy capital prudently across organic growth, dividends and share repurchases, balancing attractive opportunities with long-term shareholders' returns.

Now here, titer.

Thank you, Cesar.

Cesar Ortiz-Marcano

Thank you, Maritza. Please turn to Page 11. All comparisons are to the second quarter unless otherwise noted. Credit reflected disciplined execution, proactive risk management and typical seasonal trends. Provision for credit losses was $18.1 million, up $5.1 million from the second quarter. This reflected $17.5 million for increased loan volumes and $1.3 million due to seasonal adjustments for the auto delinquency. This compares to the second quarter, which included $14.7 million for increased loan volume, partially offset by $1.9 million in commercial loan recovery.

Early and total delinquency rate of 2.65% and 3.91% increased from the second quarter due to seasonal trends, but declined year-over-year. At the same time, net charge-offs and nonperforming loan rates of 0.7% and 0.74% decline compared to second quarter 2026 and third quarter 2025. As a result, third quarter provision was slightly lower than originally anticipated due to better auto and consumer credit metrics.

On the retail side, consumer and residential mortgage portfolios continue to perform well, with both reporting lower early and 90-plus day delinquency levels compared to a year ago. The auto portfolio experienced modest increases in both early and nonperforming delinquency levels compared to the same period last year.

Net charge-offs for auto improved year-over-year and recovery performance remained strong. Collateral liquidation values have remained stable, resulting in consistent loss liberties despite the modest increase in delinquency. This provides additional confidence that the observed seasonal increase in delinquency does not necessarily translate into increased loss content. We continue to closely monitor this trend.

Mortgage performance remains particularly strong with continued improvements across delinquency measures and recoveries continue to exceed charge-offs. As we discussed in prior quarters, first half retail credit performance typically benefit from seasonal factors, including tax reforms and other liquidity events. Then we see a seasonal increase in the credit risk in the second half. Accordingly, part of the third quarter increase in our delinquency metrics reflects decolorization rather than an acceleration in the underlying credit profile of the portfolio.

Our retail portfolio continues to benefit from discipline on the writing and a significantly improved credit profile. As we have previously reported, this reflects tighter on the granting standards, improved portfolio mix and stronger vintage performance.

Turning to Commercial. Our asset quality represents one of the strongest stories within the quarter. Commercial nonperforming loan rates were 0.68% compared to 0.90% in the second quarter. Delinquencies and nonperforming levels are down, exposures have declined and overall asset quality has improved materially. Looking ahead, we remain watchful of inflationary pressures, higher operating costs, elevated energy expenses and the continued impact of higher borrowing costs on both commercial and consumer borrowers. The credit portfolio continues to demonstrate resilience. We believe we are well positioned to navigate the current environment and any potential macroeconomic headwinds that may emerge.

Now here's Jose to wrap up.

José Fernández

Thank you, Cesar. Let's turn to Page 12. The Puerto Rico economy remains resilient. It is supported by healthy consumer and business liquidity, higher wages and historically low unemployment, infrastructure projects and private investment continue to support economic activity, manufacturing expansion and new onshoring initiatives reinforce the long-term economic outlook.

And as Cesar mentioned, we remain attentive to evolving macroeconomic conditions, including higher energy costs, interest rates and inflation while continuing to monitor broader geopolitical developments.

OFG is well positioned for growth. Our detail and the core strategy is driving customer growth and engagement simplifying operations and expanding our market opportunity. We continue investing in people and technology to improve the customer experience and operating efficiency. Our capital strength methodical execution and differentiated franchise positions as well to navigate evolving market conditions.

With this, we end our formal presentation. Operator, please open the call for questions.

Operator

\[Operator Instructions\] We will take our first question from Brett Rabatin with StoneX Group.

分析师问答

Brett Rabatin

Wanted to start off, Jose Rafael, I've seen some of the data here in the past few months has been modestly positive for some continued Puerto Rico growth. But if you look at the newspaper articles in Puerto Rico, they seem to be somewhat more and talking about downside risks and the cost of diesel, et cetera. Can you maybe just start off with just what you're seeing on the ground. And what positives and negatives you would kind of point to as it relates to the economy?

José Fernández

Sure. Thank you for your question, Brett. We need to separate a little bit the noise from the facts here in the sense that we're not seeing any deterioration on the economy to speak of. We continue to see unemployment on the 5% handle. We see wages at a higher -- kind of historically highest levels. We're seeing the onshoring coming in, and we see actual private investment flowing through the economy. So the data does not support the noise that we might be reading or listening to locally. And again, it's all driven by -- most of it driven by political kind of discussions and once I kind of challenging the other. But from our perspective and as Cesar mentioned, on the credit side, we continue to see a pretty steady consumer, and we are not seeing any indications of a slowdown in the economy. What we're seeing is a steady economy that continues to chug along and benefiting from the inflows of investment from the U.S. and to us as business continue to invest in their business, and they feel optimistic about their potential growth. So that's as much as I can share with you given the data that we have.

Brett Rabatin

Okay. That's helpful. And then I wanted to just -- it seems like all the Puerto Rico banks have been lamenting that auto has been softer. But when I look at the auto trends, I mean, the origination levels haven't fallen off that much, and it seems like auto is still there relative to what I've seen to hear. Any thoughts on auto from here? And then just the commercial pipeline, I heard the guidance around the low single-digit growth. But just any thoughts as you think about '27, any early reads that growth might be better or worse than what you're seeing this year?

José Fernández

Yes. So to your first point, we are happily surprised with the levels of auto lending originations during this year. We expected a softer market, and we are still there, seeing -- yes, lower originations, but better than what we expected. We really are not ready to give you formal 2027 guidance, but I can give you a little bit of color on how we see the auto business into 2027. I think you'll see the steady, maybe slightly lower new car sales and therefore, you will see also some trends across the market where you will see a lower auto originations. We're actually into those analysis right now. But we feel that given what we saw in 2026, we do not expect auto originations to decline additionally at a faster pace than 2026, we see it pretty stable. That's on the auto side.

On the commercial side, on the other hand, we are seeing very good growth opportunities. We are seeing good opportunities for us to establish new commercial relationships through the lending side as well as on the funding side. Maritza mentioned in her remarks, the pipeline that we continue to have. We're having a banner here on the commercial side in Puerto Rico. And a lot of our work has been put into this year's work. And the team has done a great job on the commercial middle market and small business. So we do feel that we're going to end the year with strong numbers, strong originations, and this quarter is another example of what we have been able to achieve.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Arren Cyganovich with Truist Securities.

Arren Cyganovich

On the deposit side, are you seeing competition increase, demand deposits were down -- savings deposits were down quarter-over-quarter. Anything in particular driving that? I'm sorry if I missed something in the prepared remarks.

José Fernández

Yes. I think Maritza covered it pretty well. I think -- big picture, the seasonality that we see in the first half of the year with funds coming in reflects also on the deposit side. And you'll see a little bit of a softer second half of the year on the funding side just simply because the liquidity is put to work on the commercial side as well as on the individual side, on the retail side. From a competition perspective, look, we're in a competitive market, and we compete and our competitors compete against us. So this is not a cakewalk, trying to gain market share on all the business units as well as growing the bank. So yes, for sure, there's deposit competition. We're also seeing a little bit more sensitivity with higher rates on some -- a higher balance individual clients. They are more sensitive and they're looking for alternatives. We have the wealth management business that benefits from that. So it's fine with us. But at the end, we're just trying to make sure that we service and cater to our customers on a relationship basis. And we feel pretty confident on how we're growing our deposit balances and the deposit relationship with our commercial and retail customers are.

Arren Cyganovich

Great. And as a follow-up on -- in the slide deck discussing the AI insights that are personalized for your customers. Maybe you could talk a little bit about how that works, maybe some examples of how that might be helping the customer experience?

José Fernández

Yes. So it's personalized. It's on the mobile, it's on online. You get your phone or your online. And the first thing you see is this is the expected expenses based on your several months before -- experience is your expected expenses that you're going to be funded. This is your expected income coming in. These are insights that are really unique for the Puerto Rico market. No -- ever as the bank provided those type of insights on such a simple and accessible way. So that's an example.

There's another insight that you get. And these are personalized. This is not based on collective data. This is on specific personalized ins and outs of the clients' checking accounts and savings accounts, et cetera.

We -- another example is we provide insight. You paid the same build twice in the same month, check it out because you might have paid it twice. Those are examples of what those insights provide and the feedback that we're getting -- as mentioned, it provides a pretty positive insights. This is all translating, Arren, into us growing retail customers, 5% year-over-year. And the same thing goes for the Commercial side. And it's something that we have been working on and building on throughout several years, and it's starting to show the results. We're also seeing the opportunity for us to deepen those relationships. So it's not only about bringing in new customers and clients to Oriental, it is also about our opportunity to deepen those relationships and be able to make them primary customers for us. So it's exciting times for us. We're really happy with the way our strategy is progressing and how we're unique in the market and being a different bank than the market is accustomed to see.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Kelly Motta with KBW.

Kelly Motta

I think I'd like to start off on the margin. You guys undoubtedly have one of the best margins here of the group, but it seems like your expectations near term are a bit more tempered than where you were in July. So I'm wondering kind of in terms of both loan pricing as well as the deposit competition, you've noted -- you're in a competitive environment where the incremental headwinds have been coming from relative to those July expectations.

José Fernández

Thank you for your question, Kelly. And I appreciate you recognizing the margin levels that we have and how we have managed them pretty consistently. Kudos to the team and Maritza overlooking and overseeing all that effort. So I'll let her give you the more details about it.

Maritza Arizmendi

Thank you, Kelly. I think when you look at the range that we should do, we were near the lower end of that range because we were money in several scenarios at this moment, particularly in the funding side, how we will behave in the second part of the year, given the liquidity that is moving and everything. So when you look at what happened during the quarter, we did have some repricing in the government side that we were expecting because we repriced about $400 million of the government deposit at the end of second quarter that were moved into time deposits. So we had the full impact in the third quarter. But secondly, the mix in the down savings and time deposits, we saw more than expected movement to that sort of to the time deposit side of the funding mix. And that's what happened with the initial estimate that we have.

So it's particularly driven by the funding mix. I think that the level of market rates right now, we were expecting no rate hike during the second part of the year. So now we have one. Secondly, we have the treasury notes at its highest level. So we're starting to see more clients looking for high yielding type of product. So we are there for our customers. So that's why time deposits were higher than expected during the second quarter -- third quarter.

Kelly Motta

That kind of ties into my next question, which is mostly a point of clarification as well as a look ahead. the government deposits, you had some go to wealth at the beginning of the year and then you had the -- what you had already disclosed is moving to being termed out to CDs in June, that's created some variability in those demand deposits. Just wanted to confirm that -- those balances are now one out of demand deposits. And then as we kind of look ahead, it seems like -- Clients are being driven by more rate-sensitive accounts. Do you think this is kind of a place where we can stabilize? Or would you anticipate some additional migration of excess funds to time here?

Maritza Arizmendi

Yes. Let me make sure you're asking about the government deposits or...

Kelly Motta

Yes.

Maritza Arizmendi

Okay. So that's a particular deposit that we have been managing for a long period of $1.2 billion, about $500 million moved to the broker deal at the beginning of the year. Then end of second quarter, we made two time deposits. One actually matures end of third quarter with reprices that will impact this fourth quarter coming. So the answer is that we will see some repricing there because of that condition. All these deposits are tied to 3-month treasury bills. So they will have some reflection of what the market is experiencing.

José Fernández

Yes. And it's a good point that Maritza makes because that's very much separate to the actual core client deposit funding that we have on the retail and commercial. The lines are completely different.

Maritza Arizmendi

Are necessarily tied to market, right?

José Fernández

Correct. Correct. So it's good that you asked that question, Kelly, because we might have some -- there might be some confusion among the market.

Kelly Motta

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. Maybe last question for me, and then I'll step back. I appreciate you guys reiterated the low single-digit growth outlook for the year. You're kind of already there in 3Q. Obviously, commercial growth was super strong. Wondering about the pine ahead and what could potentially push you slightly above that if you're successful in curing loans again in Q4?

José Fernández

Yes. So to answer your question, Kelly, is, yes, we're very confident that we're going to have low single-digit loan growth for the full year. And we work hard to do better. And the strong pipeline that we have gives us confident that we have a chance to do better. So that's share.

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Manuel Navas with Piper Sandler.

Manuel Navas

I appreciate the commentary. Just kind of following up on the NIM here. How should we think about the December hike post you kind of get past some of these. It seems more like unique public fund repricing moments that might be impacting the near-term NIM in the fourth quarter. How should we think about future hikes impact on into earlier next year?

Maritza Arizmendi

Yes. We will update at the end of the year with how we see 2027. But -- I can answer on the matter of the December hike, it would be something similar to this quarter that it happened at the end of September. And as I've shared with you in my prepared remarks, the more elastic asset is the cash and also the -- about $500 million, $550 million in the commercial portfolio, which is like to prime rate and the other happens only through the next quarter. So that's how we see that. So it won't be much of an impact on the fourth quarter NII.

José Fernández

The fourth quarter interest rate hike.

Maritza Arizmendi

Interest rate hike.

Manuel Navas

Sure. Sure. I guess also, separately, you had a lot of loan growth coming at the end of the quarter. Do you have a sense for new loan yields for that -- especially for that piece, maybe like September new loan yields?

José Fernández

Yes. Similar to the portfolio yields, it's a market that at those levels that were originated on the commercial Puerto Rico side. So that you should use that as a guidance.

Manuel Navas

Okay. And then I like that the buyback restarted this quarter. Just kind of thoughts on its pace. I know you're doing shareholder capital return, but just kind of a current update on capital deployment and the pace buyback?

José Fernández

Yes, yes. So we look at loan growth and balance sheet growth first. We certainly are very proactive on the capital management, and we'll continue to do so. We'll mix between dividend and the buyback. So you'll see us being pretty steady on the buyback and probably more active as their folks in the market. But overall, the capital management strategy remains the same. We want to deploy our capital for growth on the balance sheet and the excess capital that we have, we deploy it through dividends and buyback. We still have $180 million on the buyback. So that is ample space for us to go out and go into the market.

Manuel Navas

I appreciate that. My last question is a little bit on digging in deep on credit. I credit trends are really strong. The commercial trends are excellent. Just want to cover all my bases. Delinquencies tick higher in auto and a little bit higher, I think, year-over-year as well as linked quarter. Any extra color there? Is this still well within the normal seasonal increases and you kind of expect a seasonal increase in the fourth quarter and then an improvement in the first quarter of next year as well. Is that the right trajectory to think about?

Cesar Ortiz-Marcano

Yes, that startled by are right. The seasonality works from first quarter improving and then picking up to the fourth quarter. So we still expect that trend to happen this year, too.

Manuel Navas

Anything significant auto this year versus last year?

Cesar Ortiz-Marcano

No. We continue seeing the resiliency on the customers as -- you see in the credit performance of the customers. So far, the portfolio is behaving very well. The economy is close too. So those two together give us comfort on the credit performance of our portfolio.

José Fernández

Yes. And as Cesar mentioned, we're very cognizant about what's going on with higher interest rates and inflation and energy and all that stuff. But all those things are happening when Puerto Rico's economy is sitting in a much different position than in years past, and it makes a different behavior for consumers simply, that's what's going on. So the performance that you're seeing on the consumer side -- on the credit consumer side, it's a reflection of the economy and all the things that we talked about earlier in the call.

Operator

\[Operator Instructions\] At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

José Fernández

Thank you, operator. Thanks again to all our team members for a great job in the quarter, and thanks to all our stakeholders who are listening. Looking forward to see you next time.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's program. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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