[vi] Gold, silver diverge as Fed-pause expectations collide with rising crude prices - Kitco PM Report

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[vi] (Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices were near steady and spot silver prices were lower in late U.S. trading Friday, as sharply higher crude oil prices and a modest rebound in Treasury yields offset support from a weaker U.S. dollar and renewed safe-haven demand. Gold failed to sustain its earlier advance toward $4,200 as the technology-led equity selloff intensified and rising energy prices kept inflation concerns in focus. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,167.90 an ounce, down $1.90, or 0.05%, while spot silver was trading near $56.850, down $0.450, or 0.78%.

[vi] North American equities closed sharply lower, with major technology stocks extending their losses amid concerns about debt-financed artificial intelligence investment and elevated borrowing costs. The S&P 500 fell 84.62 points, or 1.1%, to 7,659.44. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 175.28 points, or 0.3%, to 52,002.41. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 572.99 points, or 2.1%, to 26,140.03, while the Russell 2000 lost 45.90 points, or 1.7%, to 2,721.37. The Nasdaq finished the week down 4.5%, its worst weekly performance since June, as selling in semiconductor, cloud-computing and other AI-related shares accelerated.

[vi] European equities closed higher, outperforming Wall Street as stronger corporate earnings helped offset concerns about technology valuations and rising financing costs. The Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.72% to 644.74, completing its strongest weekly advance since late June. Germany's DAX climbed 0.95% to 25,622.61, France's CAC 40 advanced 0.28% to 7,956.70 and the U.K. FTSE 100 rose 0.38% to 10,881.90. Italy's FTSE MIB added 0.93% to 49,857.18. Automobiles, telecommunications and energy stocks led the regional gains, while health care shares underperformed.

[vi] Market positioning remains divided between persistent inflation and increasing concerns about the economic consequences of elevated borrowing costs. Friday's data showed U.S. import prices rising 1.1% in September and 8.1% from a year earlier, the largest annual increase since July 2022. Export prices rose 2.2% on the month. September industrial production increased 0.7%, above expectations, while manufacturing output gained 0.3%. Those releases followed Wednesday's CPI report showing headline inflation at 3.7% annually and Thursday's PPI report showing producer prices rising 6.3% from a year earlier.

[vi] Despite the inflation readings, expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike continued to decline after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh declined to signal an imminent policy move during remarks at the IMF annual meetings in Bangkok. Futures markets priced approximately an 83% probability of no change at the Oct. 27-28 meeting, compared with around 72% Thursday, although traders continued to assign a high probability to additional tightening in December. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield recovered toward 5.12% after falling to a multi-week low Thursday, while the dollar remained under pressure.

[vi] The next major releases include September housing starts Tuesday, weekly jobless claims Thursday and the final October consumer sentiment survey Friday. The Fed's October decision and the September PCE inflation report, scheduled for Oct. 29, remain the principal policy catalysts. Falling real yields would support gold, but continued energy-driven inflation could sustain December hike expectations and limit the recovery.

[vi] The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation remains a major source of risk for global energy markets. Crude oil prices surged Friday as attacks on commercial vessels around the strait intensified and traders assessed the possibility of further military escalation between Washington and Tehran. Iran has indicated it is increasing strikes in response to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and tougher sanctions, while shipping-security concerns have slowed the recovery in Gulf crude exports. Brent crude futures settled at $109.86 a barrel, while front-month WTI climbed above $100 for the first time since September. Renewed attacks on Russian refining infrastructure added to supply concerns, partially offsetting the effect of planned emergency petroleum-stock releases.

[vi] For gold, the geopolitical impact remains mixed. Continued Gulf instability supports defensive demand, but crude prices above $100 are reinforcing inflation expectations and the prospect of restrictive monetary policy. The latest oil advance also threatens to complicate the broader bond-market recovery. Silver remains exposed to both channels, with lower yields supporting investment demand while technology-sector weakness, higher energy costs and concerns about industrial activity weigh on sentiment.

[vi] The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply higher and trading near $101.41 a barrel, while Brent crude settled near $109.86. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 5.12% area. The U.S. dollar index is lower on the session. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)

[vi] Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,185.25 to $4,201.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,218.00 and then $4,240.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,148.26, with deeper downside targets at $4,132.00 and then $4,111.00. First resistance is seen at $4,176.00 and then at $4,185.25. First support is seen at $4,148.26 and then at $4,132.00.

[vi] Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $57.390 to $57.856 area, with a move above that zone targeting $59.370 and then $60.450. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $56.777, with deeper downside targets at $56.340 and then $55.410. First resistance is seen at $57.390 and then at $57.856. Next support is seen at $56.777 and then at $56.340.

[vi] See live precious metals prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium — in USD, CAD and 12 more currencies.

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[vi] [Kitco NewsWire](/author/kitco-newswire)

[vi] Articles by Kitco NewsWire were generated by Kitco's AI-assisted reporting workflow and reviewed by Kitco News editorial staff, with every claim independently verified before publication.

[vi] Kitco labels all AI-assisted content as part of our commitment to editorial transparency.

[vi] For questions or corrections, contact the Kitco News editorial team.

[vi] Tags:

[vi] goldsilverAi-assisted-contentFederal ReserveStrait of HormuzNymex WTI crude oil pricesKitco Global IndexSeptember PCE inflation report10-year U.S. TreasuryU.S. dollar indexU.K. FTSE 100Germany's DAXWall StreetIMF annual meetingsPPICPIStoxx Europe 600S&P 500Dow Jones Industrial AverageNasdaq Composite

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[vi] Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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