Trump Rules Out Prospects of Military Action Against Iran; Bitcoin Rebounds to $82,000, Oil Prices Retreat

Bitcoin rebounded to $82,000 on Friday, a significant recovery from Thursday night's lows, driven by President Trump's statement that the United States would not launch an attack on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, easing market concerns about rapid escalation of US-Iran tensions.

As risk-off sentiment subsided, other major cryptocurrencies also regained some losses, while crude oil retreated from earlier highs.

Trump wrote on Truth Social at 12:17 PM local time on Thursday: "We will not attack Iran at any time before the midterm elections held on November 3 in the United States."

He also stated that discussions with Iran had been "productive," but US sanctions would remain "fully effective."

Following these remarks, selling pressure on Bitcoin near $80,300 noticeably weakened, and the price subsequently steadily recovered to $82,000.

Crypto Market Rallies as Geopolitical Tensions Ease

This rebound came after a sharp decline over approximately 24 hours. On Thursday, markets sold off risk assets amid concerns about potential renewed military escalation between the US and Iran, pushing crude oil prices higher.

Axios reported on October 7 that the Pentagon had directed US Central Command to prepare for restoring large-scale combat operations in Iran, a report that initially lifted crude oil futures.

Data showed that WTI crude oil-linked futures contracts rose from $89 to $93.20 at one point, before falling sharply following Trump's post. As of press time, crude oil futures were trading at $90.69.

Market observers noted that the easing of geopolitical risk typically erodes crude oil's risk premium while improving the trading environment for risk assets, which is why cryptocurrencies led the recovery.

"Bunker Mode" Debate Continues to Simmer

Beyond geopolitical factors, another concern that weighed on the crypto market on Thursday—the so-called "bunker mode"—continues to face scrutiny. The concept refers to a precautionary operation involving migrating crypto assets to new wallet addresses to avoid potential risks from addresses whose public keys have already been exposed on-chain.

This concept was proposed earlier this week by Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake. The core logic is that if artificial intelligence accelerates mathematical research too quickly, it could undermine the elliptic curve cryptography security that Bitcoin and Ethereum rely on—even before quantum computers actually gain the capability to break it.

Coinbase's chief cryptographer Yehuda Lindell dismissed this concern as "FUD," stating there is no evidence that long-standing assumptions about elliptic curves have been compromised.

Dragonfly's Haseeb Qureshi called it a "very prudent reminder," while Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin stated that the risks posed by AI-accelerated mathematics do exist, though he believes lattice-based cryptography is more worth paying attention to than elliptic curves.

Key Price Levels in Focus

On the price front, analysts are currently broadly watching the support level around $81,000.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Indian exchange Giottus, said that for investors, $81,000 is the level to watch most closely, and new buying should be phased in rather than concentrated in a single heavy position. High-leverage trades are not advisable until Bitcoin reclaims $83,300 with stronger ETF fund inflows and further recovers $85,500.

He warned that if $81,000 is broken, the market could fall further to $80,000, followed by a more significant on-chain support level at $77,200.

BitDelta views $82,000 as a key resistance level. Purvang Mashru, the firm's India chief analyst, stated that if Bitcoin can sustainably reclaim $82,000 while Ethereum holds above $2,500 and altcoin losses narrow, the market structure will stabilize. Conversely, if $80,316 is broken to the downside, downside risks will increase significantly.

As of press time, Bitcoin has continued recovering from Thursday's lows, and markets will next observe the combined impact of US-Iran tensions, crude oil movements, and ETF fund flows on crypto assets.