Breaking: Three U.S. Aircraft Carriers Mass at Iran's Doorstep; Pentagon Plans Three-Day Strike on Iran; Trump Has 'Stepped on the Brakes' Five Times

Iran Crisis Tracker

The New York Times reported on Thursday, October 8 (local time) that U.S. officials revealed that while President Donald Trump remains hesitant about whether to restart hostilities against Iran, the U.S. military is developing alternative plans for large-scale military operations against Iran.

Three U.S. aircraft carriers are about to gather in the Middle East, forming a massive military buildup. Under Trump's orders, the Pentagon has already formulated operational plans to strike Iran's drone and missile arsenals, energy facilities, and other military targets.

However, Trump has repeatedly decided against launching large-scale military operations against Iran. Despite Iran's recent escalating attacks on oil tankers, the U.S. military response in recent weeks has been relatively restrained.

Trump said on social media Thursday that he would not attack Iran before the U.S. midterm elections, claiming the two countries are engaged in "productive discussions."

U.S. officials revealed that over the past few months, Trump's national security team and the Pentagon had submitted five major military operation plans targeting Iran or Houthi forces based in Yemen and backed by Iran. However, Trump vetoed each of these plans.

Nevertheless, Trump has now ordered the development of military strike plans again.

According to sources familiar with the matter, last Friday, senior national security officials led by Vice President JD Vance held a meeting at Camp David to discuss the relevant military action plans.

The core of the latest plan is a military operation lasting about three days—brief but intense.

The strike will focus on Iran's missile and drone arsenals. Since the war began, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has rebuilt a significant portion of these military capabilities.

Other potential strike targets may include Iran's energy facilities, as well as the command posts and headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The American news website Axios first reported on this latest plan.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials agree with Trump's judgment that diplomatic negotiations through intermediaries have made some progress.

However, the Iranian nuclear program remains the main obstacle causing negotiations to repeatedly stall.

U.S. officials want to reach an agreement on Iran's nuclear ambitions first, while Iranian negotiators insist that the nuclear issue must be discussed in the final stages of negotiations.

As the war has continued for months, Iran's military tactics have continuously improved, making it a more formidable adversary.

Compared to the early stages of the war, the U.S. military now needs to consume more interceptors to successfully intercept missiles launched by Iran. This has brought further challenges to the already heavily strained U.S. ammunition inventory.

Since the last major retaliatory attack between both sides in September, according to a monitoring organization operated by the British Royal Navy, Iran has attacked at least 13 vessels.

However, according to individuals familiar with intelligence reports, the actual number of vessels attacked may be higher, close to 20.

Nevertheless, none of these attacks have triggered a large-scale U.S. military response.

Although oil exports from the Middle East have increased recently, Iran's escalating attacks have alarmed shipping companies and raised market concerns about the safety of future energy transportation.

Throughout the summer, whenever Iran attacked international shipping vessels, the U.S. military typically carried out retaliatory strikes.

However, the intensity of the U.S. response has since weakened noticeably.

Officials stated that this change reflects Trump's hesitation about a full-scale restart of hostilities.

At the same time, U.S. military commanders are increasingly concerned that preventing Iran from attacking military bases with U.S. personnel stationed there, as well as energy facilities and other civilian infrastructure in the Middle East, is becoming increasingly difficult.

Trump insisted in a social media post on Thursday that all oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz does not originate from Iran.

However, according to individuals familiar with relevant intelligence reports, this claim is disputed.

Iran allows certain vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, including those that have paid transit fees and those that may transport some Iranian oil.

Additionally, according to current and former U.S. officials, Iran also has its own "shadow oil tanker fleet," through which it conducts oil transportation activities.